Wed-Thu storm looking stronger for Den/Bou, latest snowfall map

01/28/25 8pm: Well folks we have an interesting and challenging forecast shaping up for the Wed/Thu storm system. I made a snowfall forecast map for you even though uncertainty is high lol.

It now appears that the upper-level low may take a more northern track on Thu am (or that the main circulation sets up further north), at least that is what all the high-res models show (like HRRR, NAM, WRF) but they are at odds with all the global models (ECMWF, GFS, GEM, etc) which show the main circulation staying pretty far south, over northeast NM...and hence I'm seeing vast differences in forecast precip / snow amounts so its a very tricky forecast at the moment.

If the low sets up further north, then much of Den/Bou, Palmer Divide and foothills west of Denver are in for a good / strong upslope event on Thu morning. If the low tracks south then obviously much less snow.

Some of the very latest high-res models like NAM, NAM-3km and HRRR to some extent are going gang-busters for parts of Denver and the foothills southwest showing up to 8-10" of snow...but I don't buy that just yet (on the other-hand models like ECMWF and GFS only have Trace-2").

So I split the difference. The main snow event for Den/Bou will be from 2am-5pm Thu (heads up Thu morning commute could be rough). Generally 1-4" possible with higher amounts for PD and foothills southwest, refer to map for details.

Areas from Springs to Pueblo, to Trinidad and foothills west can also expect 1-6" in spots (with 5-10" for Wet Mountains). The expected northeast flow at the mid-levels may cause some downslope and less snow for parts of Springs and near Canyon City.

For the mountains, the focus for heaviest snowfall is still expected over the San Juans and Sangre De Cristos with a good 6-14" expected over the higher terrain / ski areas, mostly from 11pm tonight through 2pm Thu. Even Durango / Pagosa area should finally get some snow: 1-4".

For the north-central mountains also a very tricky forecast as models are all over the place. It does now appear that parts of Summit Co, southern Grand, ClearCreek, etc will get some snow primarily from 2pm Wed to 2pm Thu with heaviest amounts along/south of I-70. 1-3" for the Summit ski areas (although areas near Breck may pick up >4"). And 2-5" for areas near Loveland/Jones/Berthoud Passes, WP, southern IPW, etc.

Likely little to no snow for areas near Steamboat and Flat Tops. And also not looking like much for areas near Aspen, CB, GM, with Trace-2" for the ski areas there. Monarch will likely do the best in that region with 4-8" there

The storm clears out after 8pm Thu. This is going to be interesting and fun!

First image is my snowfall map from now through 5pm Thu. Images 2-4 compare forecast total snowfall from very latest 00z HRRR, NAM-3km and NWS Blend of Models, take amounts with big grain of salt...I'll attach the latest ECMWF in comments which shows way less lol

Fingers crossed for a northern track 🙂