11/13/26 9am: Morning, happy Friday! I made a snowfall map for the approaching storm system (Sat am into Sun am) even though uncertainty in the details is still very high.

Models can't agree on the evolution of the trough and where the low forms on Sat evening (some are further south, others are further north) and that is leading to huge differences in snowfall (and precip amounts) across the state. My best guess below based on all the data, not exactly confident in the numbers.

Main impacts will be from 8am Sat to 8am Sun, with heaviest rain/snow Sat evening.

Snow-levels will be 10k ft Fri night into early Sat am, falling to 8k ft by Sat night into Sun am.

Rain/snow moves into the San Juans by 12am Sat and will continue through 12am Sun. Generally 6-12" for the higher terrain down there by Sun am. Refer to map.

Lighter amounts for the north-central mountains (high uncertainty). Best chances for some snow: 2pm Sat to 5am Sun: 1-5" for the local ski areas, and mountain passes. It will be spotty

Better chances for snow from near Aspen, Crested Butte, parts of the Elks, Sawatch Range (Cottonwood to Monarch passes), southern Tenmile, Mosquito range (west of Fairplay): likely 3-8" for those areas. Refer to map.

For Den/Bou and the front-range, just a chance for some rain showers mostly between 3pm Sat to 3am Sun. Best chances will be south of Denver, from the Palmer Divide south, towards Springs, Pueblo and east (onto the southeast plains).

Little to no precip from Boulder north to Ft. Collins/Loveland areas.

In terms of wind: turning more windy over southern CO: San Juans to Sangres on Sat: 11am-11pm: southwest wind-gusts of 20-40mph.

Windy on the eastern plains (closer to the CO/KS) border most of Sat into Sun: northerly wind-gusts of 20-40 mph.

Rest of north-central mountains / front-range not that much wind with this event.

Next storm system moves into the mountains by Tue afternoon (11/17) into Wed (11/18)...models show a southwest to northeast track favoring the mountains and western CO. Very little for the front-range.

And still tracking a much larger colder storm system for 11/20-11/22, bigger impacts likely (maybe some snow for Den/Bou/Ft.Collins areas).

First image is my snowfall map valid through Sun am. Second image shows forecast total liquid precip from now through 5am Sun from latest ECMWF: which is very pessimistic for the northern mountains and shows much less precip/snow overall...In contrast I show forecast total snowfall through 5am Sun from latest HRRR (much more snow up north) and latest RRFS (has a strange bullseye near Hoosier Pass, which I don't really believe at the moment)....As you can see models all over the place.