05/03/26 8pm: Getting cautiously excited for a big storm Tue into Wed, but given the model performance this year I'm nervous. But this storm is a different animal than the last one and models continue to ramp up liquid and snow amounts for the approaching storm system(s) and it is still looking like a high impact event, especially for parts of the northern front-range above 7k ft.

Below I highlight where the models are really honing in on the bulls-eye: northern front-range foothills and mountains above 7k ft, in areas from northern Jefferson county, to Gilpin, Boulder and upper part of Larimer county will be favored for up to 2ft in spot by Wed afternoon (generally 8-16" for the foothills).

On the front-range, areas between Boulder to Ft. Collins/Loveland areas will likely be favored for heaviest precip amounts (> 2" of liquid in spots).

Initially on Mon night into Tue am looks like the heaviest precip will be near the CO/WY border (so they may get a good start up there).

Many of the models show 1.75” to 2.25” of liquid precip for areas between Boulder and Ft. Collins and 5-10” of snow for lower elevations (coming Tue night into Wed am)

For Denver proper and the western suburbs and towards the Palmer Divide likely a good 0.75” to 1.50” of liquid precip and possibly 3-8”+ of new snow, favoring higher terrain west of I-25.

The thing I like about this storm system is the coldest air and best dynamics (in terms of the northern trough and southern upper-level low phasing together) will be on Tue night through mid-day Wed. So the coldest air coincides with night time and that will allow snow to pile up some. Den/Bou and the foothills will have best chances for good accumulating snowfall from 6pm Tue to 12pm Wed.

And of course looks like a good snow event for much of the north-central mountains, especially from near Steamboat to Beaver Creek/Vail and east including Summit, ClearCreak and Grand Counties and of course all of the Front Range mountains.

Most of the north-central mountains and front-range mountains and foothills above 7k ft are now under a Winter Storm Watch from about 6pm Mon through 3pm Wed, biggest impacts will be from 3pm Tue to 12pm Wed.

Worst road conditions expected from 6pm Tue to 9am Wed, will be rough in spots.

In terms of the cold air, will be below freezing on the front-range on Wed am (lows of 26-30) so a surface freeze….all you need to do is turn off outside water, detach hoses, for your sprinklers: just turn off water main and drain the control valve pipes that are outside (no need to blowout the whole sprinkler system, just take care of stuff exposed above surface), bring sensitive plants and flowers inside etc.

That is all for now, I’ll post more model liquid snow amounts in the comments. Getting excited and nervous, fingers crossed big time that this pans out, LFG! I need more pow 🙂

First image shows forecast total snowfall from now through 6am Thu from latest NWS Blend of Models, I highlighted where biggest impacts will be. Second images shows forecast total liquid precip from now through 6am Thu from latest ECMWF model, it has been very consistent the last 4-5 runs in a row, showing a big event and I circled the area that will be favored. Image 3 shows forecast total snowfall from ECMWF through 6am Thu, take amounts with grain of salt. Fourth image shows the Winter Storm Watch from NWS.

In the comments I'll attach some more model precip graphics.

Also I'll have custom snowfall map for this storm system tomorrow.

And Go Avs!!