05/10/26 9pm: Some of the latest climate / seasonal models indicate the chances for a very strong El Nino developing by the Sep/Oct timeframe, with an anomaly of > 3 degC, that could mean some wild weather next fall/winter.

Earlier I had mentioned the chance for a Super El Nino (anomaly of > 2 degC in the Nino 3.4 region) and that actually looks even more likely with some CFSv2 members showing the chance for > 3.5 degC and even a few above +4 degC, which would be off the charts in terms of strong El Nino events.

But we have a ways to go, so even it isn't that strong, a moderate El Nino looks very likely based on NOAA probabilities (image 2 below)...and that should bring CO a generally more active and wetter pattern overall as we go forward.

Even for the upcoming summer months some of the sub-seasonal prediction systems / models show a chance for above average precip over CO for Jun, Jul, Aug, especially over southern CO with possibly a more active monsoon (image 3 shows this below, CAN-SIP: Canadian seasonal prediction system, h/t met Chris Bianchi).

Regardless, I think next season is going to be quite different for CO in terms of above/below average precip.

The strong El Nino generally favors above average precip / snow for the front-range (including Den/Bou). Some of my biggest recorded snowfall seasons were during moderate/strong El Ninos.

It also favor heavier rain/snow over southern CO (San Juans, Elks, SLV, Sangres, southeast plains etc)

North-central CO / I-70 mountains are a bit more uncertain in terms of impacts but I think chances favor much more rain/snow for the mountains next season as (and hopefully an active summer with rain and thunderstorms).... we shall see.

I'm hoping for a return to some big upper-level lows this fall, like a monster winter-storm in Oct (that can happen with strong El Ninos, and we are due).

Hope you are having a good Sun.

First image shows predictions of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region from the CFSv2 ensemble members and (mean black line). Second image shows ENSO probabilities from NOAA. Third image shows chances for above / below average precip this summer from CAN-SIPs h/t Chris.