06/10/26 8:40pm: Morning, we have some weather to talk about. Windy with high fire danger across the state today. Then I'm tracking some deeper monsoon-like moisture that will combine with a cold-front this weekend and bring better rain chances and cooler weather to the state from Sat evening through Mon evening.

First models show a dry short-wave and cold-front moving across northern CO this afternoon / evening....This will mostly produce strong wind in spots.

Much of CO, including from Denver east onto the plains and all of western and southern CO (west of Vail Pass) is under a Red Flag Warning from 10am-10pm today: west / northwest wind-gusts of 20-50mph in spots, with warm and dry conditions.

This initial front will just cool down temp across northern CO and the front-range (Den/Bou) tomorrow (for example high temp of 87 for Den today, 79 on Thu).

Back to hot, dry and windy conditions (in spots) for Friday and most of Saturday. Should be great to be outside on both of those days, for the first part of the weekend.

Then models show a surge of deeper, monsoon-like moisture moving up from the south and this will combine with a short-wave trough and cold-front moving in from the north, mostly on Sun.

Initially looks like a better chance for thunderstorms and rain over southern CO (San Juans to Sangres) and parts of the southern front-range (Springs south) on Saturday afternoon / evening (after 4pm on Sat into early Sun am).

Den/Bou may have a few showers and thunderstorms Sat night into Sun, mostly after 6pm Sat.

But the main event in terms of rain chances and cooler air will be from 12pm Sun through about 6pm Mon (maybe multiple rounds of showers, each afternoon). The cooler weather and upslope on the front-range may extend into Tuesday as well. Looks like high temps may be only in the upper 60s / low 70s for Den/Bou on Sun and Mon.

Big question is how far south will the main trough moves in and also how far south the cold-air makes it into CO...this will impact rain amounts.

Although it does look like the north-central mountains and western CO will have better rain chances on Sun, the focus for the Sun/Mon storm in terms of precip will likely be on the front-range again (and in the mountains east of the Cont. Divide). Uncertain how much rain the mountains and western CO will get (where they really need it).

Bottom line is: unsettled and cooler for Sun-Tue (06/14-06/16), favoring the front-range.

Looking a ways out, maybe more moisture and another storm system for the later part of that following week / weekend (06/19-06/20), but that is uncertain.

First image loop shows forecast PWAT (Preciptable Water Vapor Anomaly) from tomorrow through the following Fri (about next 10 days)...we look for those deeper greens to blue for the good moisture. Second image shows all the Red Flag Warnings in place for today. Third image shows forecast precip-type / rate at 6pm Sun from GFS. Fourth image shows the much colder-air aloft moving into the front-range by next Mon am, via forecast 700mb temps. Fifth image shows forecast total precip from now through 6am next Tue from NWS Blend of Models, take with a big grain of salt but gives general idea of where the heaviest precip may fall this weekend, take with a huge grain of salt (as we area dealing with thunderstorms / convection).