02/08/26 9:45am: Here is what I’m seeing weather-wise for this week and beyond in regards to the pattern change. Overall high uncertainty in the forecast coming up, even through Friday (02/13) as there is not much run to run consistency between the models right now (although starting to get there this morning). Beyond that it is very hard to tell what happens between Sat to Tue (02/14-02/17) as models are all over the place with solutions. Initially I'll focus on snowfall details through Fri am.

Does look like some decent snow coming to the mountains by Thu/Fri. But likely not much precip initially for Den/Bou and the front-range through Fri.

Again, I’ll stress some patience with the expected pattern change because as mentioned the most active period with heaviest snowfall for the mountains will likely be from Feb 15th-20th but some snow prior to this.

I’m going to largely base my forecasts off the ECMWF model which is usually the most accurate at 3-7 days out and has been the most consistent lately (but who knows if its right).

The Tue am into Wed am wave is looking weaker and further north, but still some light snow for the northern mountains between 8am Tue to 8am Wed. Best chances in the Flat Tops, Park Range (Steamboat ski and north), Medicine Bow Range (RMNP to Cameron Pass area), with ½” to 3” in spots there. Further south for the I-70 mountain corridor and local ski areas, not much, just a Trace-2” in spots near Cont. Divide by Wed am.

It looks like the first more substantial short-wave will bring snow to the north-central mountains from about 11am Wed through 5am Fri (heaviest during the day Thu). This is a relatively warmer storm with southwest flow on the front-end and then some colder air and westerly flow on the back-end.

Uncertainty is high snow amount details, but highest amounts are likely west of Vail Pass with maybe 5-10”+ for areas near Vail, Beaver Creek, Aspen/CB, Grand Mesa, Flat Tops and Steamboat / Park Range.

Looks like 3-8” likely for Summit, ClearCreek and Grand county ski areas (Copper, Breck, Keystone, A-Basin, Loveland, Winter Park, Eldora, etc), similar for IPW, RMNP and Cameron Pass.

For the San Juans (Telluride, Silverton, Purgatory and Wolf Creek), maybe 2-6” by Fri am, higher uncertainty there.

For Den/Bou and the front-range even more uncertain in terms of precip chances this week. but initially a chance for some rain Wed evening, then rain/snow showers during the day Thursday (02/12) as the short-wave passes overhead, Best chances from 8am-8pm Thu . Likely not much precip, maybe a chance for Trace-1” of snow in a few spots, best chances in the foothills.

Beyond the Thu/Fri storm the details get very murky. It now appears that the Fri/Sat wave may track too far south for much impact to CO, or not…Some of the models, like latest ECMWF do show more light snow for both the north-central and south-central mountains from 11am Fri to 11am Sat, with an additional 1-4”+ in spots, GFS doesn’t show much additional Fri into Sat. Some models have more for the San Juans / southern CO, others are further north, its complicated.

Maybe some more light snow for the mountains Sat night into Sun, depending on what model you look at.

Very high uncertainty in detail into the following week but looks like much more snow possible from around Mon night (02-16) to Fri pm (02/20) but too far out for any details.

So you can see a pretty snowy forecast coming up for the mountains but uncertainty is high and just know its going to take a bit for the more consistent snow to roll into the mountains. Fingers crossed.

First image shows the first more substantial storm for Wed to Fri, valid at 8pm Thu via forecast 500mb vorticity / wind from latest ECMWF model. Images 2-4 compare forecast total snowfall from now through just 5am Fri, take snowfall amounts with big grain ofs salt (these global models can't resolve the valley/mountains features as well and its a ways out).