Weather outlook for the week: increasing thunderstorm chances and return of some monsoon moisture

07/13/25 9:45am: Happy Sunday. We do have some weather to talk about. Some storms for the mountains today, a short-wave trough for tomorrow. Then increasing monsoon like moisture from Tue afternoon through Sat (with best moisture for mountains on Thu, Fri and Sat likely). Models also show a cold-front moving down the front-range on Wed afternoon into Thu. So overall cooler with better storm chances from Wed-Sat this upcoming week (but still hit or miss thunderstorms as usual).

For today best moisture convergence and lift will be over parts of the central mountains. For both the north-central and south-central mountains a chance for scattered thunderstorms today from 3pm-11pm, best chances will be near the Cont. Divide from Summit Co south to Collegiate Range, parts of SLV, Sangres and eastern San Juans. Also some storms over the Front Range mountains (RMNP to IPW this afternoon).

For Den/Bou just a slight chance for an evening thunderstorm between 9pm-12am, best chances in foothills (most areas stay dry).

Then for tomorrow, models show a short-wave trough moving across the state:For the north-central mountains: scattered storms from 12pm-7pm tomorrow.For Den/Bou, foothills and front-range: scattered storms tomorrow from 2pm-8pm. Likely a line of thunderstorms moving through the metro area around 3-5pm tomorrow as the short-wave moves through.

On Tue we will stick with decent thunderstorm chances in the mountains (scattered variety again) mostly after 2pm-8pm again. For Den/Bou and front-range on Tue, isolated storms from 3pm-9pm again, hit or miss.

Looking ahead on Wed a cold-front will move down the front-range after 12pm and set the stage for better storm chances along the front-range. Storms likely after 3pm on Wed for Den/Bou and front-range.

Also likely some storms in parts of the mountains Wed afternoon / evening but the best coverage will be from the Front Range mountain east.

Looking ahead a deeper surge of monsoon like moisture expected for Thu-Sat, so good chances for afternoon thunderstorms especially in the mountains on Thu, Fri and Sat....I'll have more on that later.

First image loop shows forecast radar over the next 48hrs (6am this morning to 6am Tue) from latest HRRR model. Image 2 shows the cooler weather expected for the front-range at 12pm Thu (2m temperature anomaly from ECMWF). Third image shows the deeper monsoon moisture moving into southern / western CO at 9pm this Thu via 700mb-300mb RH (we want those deeper greens).