The Mon/Tue storm is looking weaker (a look at potential amounts)

12/04/24 8pm: Well its not looking like a big snow event for the Mon/Tue storm system, especially for Den/Bou and the northern front-range...but models are still all over the place with the storm evolution, strength and track so uncertainty is high....thus its informative to look at the ensemble models (like EPS and GEFS) and also the NWS Blend of Models (which is like an ensemble of all the different models).

Overall models have trended down the precip and snow for Den/Bou and parts of the front-range. But they still show the potential for a better event for the southern front-range (from Palmer Divide south) and for parts of the north-central mountains. In the first image below I highlight the areas that have best chance for meaningful snow accumulation and put a question mark in areas that may get some good snow but its uncertain.

GFS still is trying to show a stronger, semi-closed low tracking from near the 4-corners to northern NM on Mon. ECMWF and GEM on the other hand show a much broader / weaker open wave, with a distinct split in the energy (main low stays pretty far southwest, with a weaker preceding wave)...and hence they show less snow (12z ECMWF below still has some snow, especially near Springs south, don't believe the Spring snow numbers though, but 18z EC which I don't show has almost no precip for the front-range, seems to be an outlier at the moment).

Still expecting the main impacts to be from 5am Mon to 2am Tue.

Parts of the north-central mountains from near Aspen to Vail to Summit Co (Copper, Breck, A-Basin) to parts of ClearCreek and Grand counties and IPW (Loveland, Berthoud, WP) will likely get some decent snow. Also some of the models show the Park Range north of Steamboat also getting a good shot of snow as the low drops in early Mon....but other models have the low too far south (hence the question mark). For the mountains mentioned above, likely 2-6" of new snow by Tue am (12/10)

For Den/Bou and the northern front-range: as of now looks like some light, accumulating snow on Mon afternoon / evening, with 1-3" in spots. Foothills and Palmer Divide could get 2-5". Likely little to no snow north of Boulder again.

Heaviest snow on the front-range maybe near Pikes Peak and secondarily near Wet Mountains, Walsenburg / Trinidad, Sangres, etc: maybe 3-9" in spots down there.

But overall uncertainty is high, so stay tuned!

Below I compare forecast total snowfall from now through 5am Tue (12/10) from latest NWS Blend of Models, ECMWF-Ensemble (EPS), ECMWF deterministic and the GFS (which seems to be the high-end outlier still lol).