Snowfall map for the next storm system: Thu pm through Sun pm

02/12/25 8:40pm: Current storm system isn't even done yet but we have a much stronger Pacific storm system on tap starting tomorrow evening and I know many of you were curious about snow totals for the weekend, so I made a new snowfall map for you valid from 5pm Thu through 11am Sun 🙂

Of course models can't agree on exact storm track and strength so uncertainty is high and details are bound to change, but my best take on things below. This storm system will favor southwestern CO with the highest snowfall this time around.

First models show one more short-wave moving over the north-central mountains tonight, through 5am Thu with an additional 1-3" of new snow at some of the local ski areas, favoring areas near the Cont. Divide.

Then a nice break in the weather with sunny and warmer conditions returning for most of Thursday (as a quick moving ridge moves through).

Snow moves back into southern CO / San Juans after 5pm Thu, with heavy snow through early Sun morning. For the ski areas down there like Telluride, Purg, Silverton, Wolf Creek, etc generally 20-36" of new snow, favoring areas near both Silverton and WC.

For the north-central mountains including Routt, Pitkin, Eagle, Summit, Grand, Clear/Creek, western Boulder/Larimer counties the main snow event will be from 11pm Fri to 2am Sun. Coldest air comes in by early Sat morning with better northwest flow Sat into Sun (that is when heaviest snow will be). Generally 8-18" for the local ski areas and higher terrain with highest amounts west of Vail Pass.

Also looks like Elks between Aspen and Crested Butte and the Grand Mesa will be favored for heavy snow as well (areas near CB may actually be favored for the higher amounts), with generally 14-24" of new snow for the ski areas down there by Sun am.

Now for Den/Bou and the front-range a much more tricky and uncertain forecast. All will depend on how far south the main low tracks on Fri night into Sat....ECMWF shows a good shot of upslope and colder air again late Fri night into Sat am with a shot of snow for the urban corridor and foothills (1-3"), the other models like GFS, show the wave far enough north to produce westerly downslope flow on the front-range with little to no snow, so who knows. At minimum a rain/snow mix Fri evening into Sat. A better chance for snow / snow showers on Sat night into Sun am (Trace-3" additional in spots, more in the foothills). Refer to map.

In terms of wind: not too bad with this storm. Some stronger wind over the Front Range mountains and foothills on Thu with westelry wind-gusts of 30-50mph. Then on Fri initially calm with wetter snow moving in. Then as the cold-front moves through, stronger westerly winds in the mountains from 12pm Fri through 12pm Sat: wind-gusts of 30-60mph.

Then more snow likely for the north-central mountains from 8pm Sun through 8am Mon, with several more inches of snow (2-6"+), that is not included in my map and I'll have more on that later.

That is all for now (so much going on with the winter weather, its busy). Not required by no means, but I do take donations at: Venmo: @Seth-K-Linden and Paypal: @sethklinden. Cheers to all the snow!

First image is my preliminary total snowfall forecast map from 5pm Thu through 11am Sun. Second image loop show the active pattern via forecast 500mb vorticity / wind from 18z ECMWF....all going to depend on how far south the main low / trough tracks. Images 3 and 4 compare forecast total snowfall from now through 11am Sun from latest ECMWF and NWS Blend of Models (take with amounts with big grain of salt, but you get the drift).