Snowfall map for the Mon/Tue storm

03/02/25 7pm: Hi, hope you had a good weekend and enjoyed the beautiful and warm weather (was 70 at my house today) because we have some big changes coming tomorrow... Below is my snowfall map for the Mon/Tue storm system despite high uncertainty in the details. Model can't agree on the exact evolution of the upper-level low, when cyclogenesis will occur and how strong it will be, so they are all over the place with snow amounts in many areas. But my best guess below...I'm leaning a bit more on the high-res models like HRRR and CAIC WRF-2km since we are within 48 hours.. I'll let the map mostly speak for itself but here are some main points.

We have a bunch of winter weather watches and warnings in place right now (image 2 shows this):

• Southern Palmer Divide (Monument south) and Pikes Peak region above 7k ft is under a Winter Storm Warning from 5pm Mon to 5pm Tue

• North-central mountains / Front Range mountains from Summit east is under a Winter Storm Watch from 3pm Mon to 5pm Tue

• Western north-central mountains including Steamboat, Vail, BC, Aspen etc. is under a Winter Weather Advisory from 11am Mon through 4pm Tue

• Southwest mountains / San Juans (Telluride to WC) is also under a Winter Weather Advisory from 8am Mon to 11am Tue

• Areas from Colorado Springs southeast including Pueblo to La Junta to Springfield are under a Red Flag Warning and High Wind Watch from 5am Mon to 5pm Tue

For the north-central mountains the main snow event will be from 2pm Mon to 2am Wed (heaviest early Tue am, lighter orographic snow after 5pm Tue through 2am Wed). Generally 8-18" of snow for the local ski areas and higher terrain with highest amounts over the Front Range mountains (Cameron Pass, RMNP, IPW), secondarily near WP, Berthoud/Jones/Loveland passes and maybe also near Gore Range, Vail / Vail Pass.

For Den/Bou and the front-range and Palmer Divide a much more tricky forecast....and will all depend on exactly where the low sets up on Tue morning. But generally speaking, cyclogenesis (strengthening of the low) east of CO is typically not good for snowfall in Den/Bou as we get too much northwesterly downslope flow and that is indeed what most of the models are showing. But if the low were to setup just 50 miles further southwest, Denver could get heavy snow Tue am (doesn't seem likely at the moment).

Regardless, for Den/Bou chance for snow Tue am. First some rain showers and weak thunderstorms from 2pm-8pm tomorrow. Then a chance for snow showers from 8pm Mon through 5am Tue....Best chances south and east of Denver. Generally Trace-3" for the metro area with 1-6" for parts of upper foothills and 4-8" for the Palmer Divide (best chances south of I-70).

In terms of wind: For Monday turning very windy across southern CO (along/south of I-70 in the mountains) and from Springs south from 11am-5pm with westerly wind-gusts of 30-60mph. Not as windy for Den/Bou but some wind tomorrow.

Then it will be turning very windy over the northern front-range (including Den/Bou) and eastern plains from about 8pm Mon through 5pm Tue...windiest 5am-12pm on Tue: north / northwesterly wind-gusts of 40-70 mph, strongest on the eastern plains (east of DIA) and on Palmer Divide...could be blizzard conditions in spots Tue am.

Will also be very windy over parts of the north-central mountains on Tue, especially along/east of the Cont. Divide (Front Range mountains): wind-gusts of 30-70mph as well. A bit less wind further west, west of Vail Pass.

Looking ahead, next storm system will impact the state from about 2pm Thu through 5pm Fri, another round of heavy snow for the mountains, more snow possible for Den/Bou.

That is all for now. First image is my forecast snowfall map through 5am Wed. Second image shows all the watches and warnings from NWS. Third image shows the upper-level low at 11pm Mon. Images 4 and 5 compare forecast total snowfall through 5pm Tue from very latest 00z HRRR and 18z CAIC WRF 2km model, take amounts with grain of salt (uncertainty is high).