Potential for stronger storms next week

12/10/24 8pm: Lets take a look ahead at when we can expect our next storm systems. Initially a couple of weaker storm systems for the mountains before a potentially stronger storm the middle of next week (with snow possible for mountains and front-range).

Models show a quick moving short-wave impacting the state on Friday but the best moisture and lift is forecast to stay north of CO, so limited impacts. Here are some main points over the next several days

• For the north-central mountains (including Routt, Pitkin, Eagle, Summit, Grand, ClearCreek, western Boulder/Larimer counties) light snow / snow showers primarily from 5am-11pm Fri: 1-4" for the local ski areas / I-70 mountain corridor with up to 6" in parts of Park Range, Flat Tops and Medicine Bow ranges (northern mountains)

  It will be windy over the Front Range mountains on Fri: westerly wind-gusts of 30-60mph

  For Den/Bou and the front-range lower elevations just windy and chilly on Fri with westerly wind-gusts of 20-40 mph, no precip

  Then the forecast becomes more uncertain: ECMWF shows another storm system impacting CO primarily from 11am Sun to 11am Mon (12/15-12/16) with several more inches of snow for the mountains (additional 3-7" maybe)...

  But GFS (which has been performing better lately) shows this Sun/Mon storm system tracking north of CO with little to no impact (and little snow in the mountains)...ensembles support this, but its unclear

  For Den/Bou and the front-range again just wind for the Sun/Mon storm as the models show too much westelry downslope flow (main wave is north)

  Then per GFS (and EC to some degree) a stronger storm system is possible from about 5pm Tue (12/17) to 5pm Wed (12/18)...this could bring more significant snow to the mountains (4-8"+ in spots) and maybe some snow to Den/Bou and the front-range (2-6" depending)...but the forecast is highly uncertain

  Beyond the 12/17 to 12/18 storm it looks dry across the state until after Christmas (12/25)...turning more active by end of December

So as you can see somewhat active but unclear the overall impacts to CO. Anyway, I'll be out making some turns tomorrow am, so no updates until tomorrow night.

First image shows the next storm system via 500mb vorticity / wind at 6am Fri from latest GFS. Images 2 and 3 compare forecast total snowfall from now through 11am Sat from latest GFS and ECMWF and fourth image shows the Sun/Mon storm system approaching the state at 11pm Sat from latest GFS but its unclear if that waves tracks north of CO (GFS) or moves directly into CO (from ECMWF).

Thoughts on extended forecast.