Increasing thunderstorm chances each afternoon this week (after 2pm each day). High uncertainty regarding the Mon-Wed storm system next week

10/06/26 10:30am: Aside from the warm temps, We will have an increasing thunderstorms chances, each afternoon from today through Friday, favoring the central mountains.

First, near record high temps for Den/Bou and the front-range again today (already in the upper 70s there, high will be in the mid-80s).

For today a chance for some late afternoon thunderstorms (snow above 13,500ft) in the central mountains, near the Cont. Divide from 4pm-10pm.

For tomorrow a chance for some scattered thunderstorms for much of the north-central and south-central mountains and western CO: 2pm-9pm, favoring areas near the Cont. Divide and generally west of Vail Pass.

Then on Thu a better chance for storms for Den/Bou and the front-range from 4pm-11pm as models show a little short-wave moving through, likely nothing major though.

For the mountains on Thu, a chance for storms after 2pm.

We will stick with decent afternoon thunderstorm chances in the mountains on Fri as well, after 2pm (scattered storms, favoring the higher terrain again).

Then moisture increases across the state on Sat and Sun ahead of a big west coast trough. So better afternoon storm chances in the mountains (and maybe front-range) on Sat and Sun (after 1pm each day). Snow level will stay above 13k ft through Sun.

Looking ahead: Still high uncertainty on how the west coast trough / upper-level low will evolve. Latest model data has the low sort of stalling out well west of CO initially on Mon into Tue, then it may move across CO on Tue into Wed but the forecast track is uncertain (if it tracks north, less impacts for CO and the front-range).

Models show another storm behind that one for Fri, Oct 16th to Sat Oct 17th, high uncertainty on how that will evolve as well.

Generally turning more active across the state next week from Tue-Sat (10/13-10/17). Mountain snow likely. Maybe some rain/snow for Den/Bou depending on upper-level low track (its very uncertain right now).

First image loop shows forecast radar over the next 84hrs from latest RRFS model (from 6am today to 6pm Fri). Second image shows static view of forecast radar at 5pm tomorrow from latest HRRR (some storms in spots). Third image shows the upper-level low at 6am Tue from latest ECMWF, showing it pretty far west and double-barreled, which will make it complicated.