Hot and dry today followed by gusty thunderstorms and high fire danger in spots on Thu. Better rain chances Fri and Sat

08/13/25 8:45am: Hot and dry conditions across the state today before better rain chances move back into the state starting tomorrow and especially Fri into Sat (especially for the central mountains). Luckily the wind looks to be on the lighter side overall except for some gusty thunderstorms at times, especially tomorrow. Here are some main points

• Much of the west-central mountains from Steamboat to Vail to Aspen and towards Glenwood and Rifle are under a Red Flag Warning from 12pm-8pm today: westerly winds of 10-15mph (gust to 25 mph), no burning

• All of western CO, including the north-central mountains and western slope is under Fire Weather Watches for today, tomorrow and Fri, from NWS: "Scattered dry thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday will be capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty outflow winds which when combined with extremely dry conditions, will be capable of fire starts."

• In terms of thunderstorm chances for today: some high-based gusty storms expected over the front-range mountains and foothills (east of the Divide) and towards the Palmer Divide and front-range urban corridor (Den/Bou) between 3pm-8pm: very little rain, just wind

• For tomorrow models show the first surge of better moisture moving into CO from the south / southwest but the deeper moisture is aloft: so high-based gusty storms and lightning on Thu afternoon

• Small pop-up storms will first develop tomorrow across the southwest to south-central mountains in the 12pm-2pm timeframe and then spread northeast

• For the north-central and south-central mountains tomorrow: isolated to scattered storms: 2pm-7pm, gusty wind and lightning

• For Den/Bou and the front-range on Thu: isolated, high-based storms from 4pm-10pm, best chances for any meaningful rain will be in/near the foothills and Palmer Divide

• Looking ahead, better rain and thunderstorm chances across western CO and much of the mountains from 12pm-8pm Fri, turning wet in spots, especially closer to the Cont. Divide

• For Den/Bou and the front-range also a better chance for scattered storms on Fri: 3pm-9pm, best chances in the foothills

• Similar with afternoon storms on Sat: 1pm-9pm across the state

  
  

In terms of smoke conditions: pretty bad surface smoke across parts of western CO and the north-central mountains near Vail this morning, but that should improve by tomorrow am. But overall surges of surface smoke, especially near the wildfires over the next several days.

First image loop shows forecast radar over the next 60hrs (6am this morning through 6pm Fri) from latest NAM-3km model. Second image shows the current Red Flag Warnings (pink) and Fire Weather Watch areas (light orange) from NWS. Images 3 and 4 compare forecast near-surface smoke conditions from 9am this morning to 9am tomorrow (Thu) from latest HRRR.