Better monsoon rain chances return for the weekend into next week

08/12/25 8:40am: On the hunt for precipitation! lol. Looking at the models trying to see when / if we will get some late monsoon moisture and better rain chances.....it is looking better from this weekend into next week. Models show a more classic monsoon pattern developing by Friday (with the area of high-pressure shifting southeast of CO allowing moisture to move in from the south).

The increase in moisture starts Thu but really ramps up Fri and Sat lasting into Sun. So heads up if you are going to the mountains this weekend, expect much better thunderstorm chances after 1pm each day (north to south).

In the meantime from today through Fri, its going to be turning quite hot again, another little mini heat-wave for Wed-Fri this week with temps getting back to near 100 degs for Den/Bou especially tomorrow and Thu.

In terms of fire conditions for western CO, luckily models show fairly light wind over much of CO, especially today, but it will remain on the lighter side going into tomorrow: but some wind over western / northwestern CO tomorrow afternoon: 11am-8pm, northwest wind-gusts of 15-30mph.

Afternoon thunderstorm chances return to the central mountains (north to south) on Thursday but still looking at isolated to scattered coverage: 1pm-8pm, best chances near the Cont. Divide.

By Friday and Saturday, much deeper moisture moves into the mountains from the south. So good chances for scattered thunderstorms across the north-central and south-central mountains from 1pm-8pm on Fri and Sat and maybe continuing into Sun. As I mentioned, hike / play early in the mountains this weekend as there will be storms in the afternoon (with lightning).

Den/Bou will also have better storm chances on Fri, Sat and Sun but it will be more limited (we will likely be in our classic: capped / donut hole regime, with better storm coverage in the foothills and mountains this weekend).

Looking a ways out, models show the chance for continued monsoon moisture for next week from Aug 18th - Aug 23rd, with best chances towards the end next week. Details still need to be worked out (but expect daily, afternoon storms in spots, so that is good).

First image loop shows forecast Precipitable Water Vapor Anomaly (PWAT) from latest ECMWF...we look for the greens to darker green / blues for the deep moisture....you can see it move into CO this weekend into next week. Image 2 and 3 show 24hr precip (ending 6am each day) for Fri and Sat and you can see the more classic monsoon signature (for more storms and precip, but take amounts with grain of salt). Images 4 and 5 show the 10-day forecast for both Denver and Breckenridge from TWC.