A look at the weather this week with a focus on the Thu-Fri storm sytem

03/10/25 8:30am: Morning, its Monday and I'm tired with time change, feels early lol. Anyway, lets take a look at what we can expect weather-wise this week with a focus on the Thu-Sat storm system which will have biggest impacts over southwest CO and more limited impacts over northern CO (including the front-range). Here are some main points:

Dry and warm weather expected across the state today and Tue. High temps between 65-75 for Den/Bou/Ft.Collins and the front-range today (warmest today) with high temps in the 40s/50s for the mountains).

It will be turning windy along the front-range between 11am-7pm today, westerly wind-gusts of 20-40 mph for urban corridor. Wind-gusts of up to 50 mph in foothills and front-range mountains above 7k ft.. Red Flag Warnings in spots today for Larimer county foothills and areas near Colorado Springs / Pikes Peak.

A weak storm system will pass across southern CO on Wed into Thu. This will bring a few rain/snow showers to the mountains (north-central to south-central mountains) from 3pm Wed through 12pm Thu, Trace-2” in a few spots up high favoring southern CO. Most areas won't see much.

More consistent snow moves into southwest CO: San Juans after 3pm Thu, with some heavy snow down there from about 6pm Thu through 9pm Fri: 12-20” for the ski areas (like Telluride, Purg, Silverton and WC) by Sat am.

For the north-central mountains models are showing on/off rounds of snow from about 3am Fri through 3am Sun (two waves) with the initial main wave of moderate snow from: 6am-6pm Fri, lingering snow showers Sat into Sun (secondary short-wave). Generally 5-10” for the local ski areas through Sat am with highest amounts expected west of Vail Pass. A few more inches expected Sat night into Sun but that part is uncertain.

Parts of the Elks (between CB and Aspen) and areas closer to Flat Tops and Steamboat (western mountains) will also be favored for up to 12” in spots by Sat am, with a bit more into Sun am.

For Den/Bou and the front-range with models showing the main low tracking south and then strengthening east of CO on Fri afternoon, not a great setup for heavy precip. Still a chance for rain/snow showers (possibly changing to all snow on Fri) from about 3am-3pm Fri. Best chance for some accumulating snow will be along the Palmer Divide and in the foothills above 7k ft (maybe Trace-3” in those favored areas), otherwise likely little to no snow for Den/Bou and lower elevations. Turning windy Fri:

The other story with the Fri storm system will be the very strong wind in spots, especially over the eastern plains and parts of the front-range primarily: 9am Fri to 9am Sat: northerly wind-gusts of 40-60mph in spots, windiest in eastern CO and in the front-range mountains / foothills Fri afternoon

Looking ahead, next storm system slated to impact the state from early Tue, March 18th through Wed, March 19th: more snow likely for both the mountains and front-range (Den/Bou) and that storm looks colder overall. So the weather pattern will remain active through mid-March.

First image loop shows the evolution of the weather pattern via 500mb vorticity / wind from now through Sun from latest ECMWF. Images 3 and 4 compare forecast total snowfall from now through 6am Sat from latest NWS Blend of Models and ECMWF, take amounts with big grain of salt but you can see western / southwestern CO will be favored. Image 4 shows forecast 6hr max wind-gusts ending 6pm Fri from latest ECMWF: going to be windy on Friday (especially eastern plains). That is all for now.